News & Market Analysis: Copper’s Double Act: Cash Machine Today, Strategy Rewrite Tomorrow

Copper has staged a quiet coup in this earnings season. It is no longer the optional extra in a diversified mining portfolio. It is the swing factor in profits and the anchor of future strategy. Dr copper, indeed. And things are looking pretty healthy.

The numbers tell the first half of the story. Antofagasta’s 2025 core profit rose 52% to $5.2bn despite slightly lower output. Price did the work, with revenue climbing more than 30% and the dividend more than doubling. Strong copper pricing translated directly into cash generation and shareholder returns.¹

At Rio Tinto, copper played defence rather than offence. Underlying earnings were flat at $10.87bn as stronger copper offset weaker iron ore.² In another cycle, iron ore would have dictated the outcome, but this time copper absorbed the shock. That matters. When a diversified major can lean on copper to steady group earnings, the internal capital calculus shifts.

Elsewhere the pivot is even clearer. BHP reported that copper accounted for 51% of EBITDA, overtaking iron ore as the dominant earnings contributor.³ Glencore has publicly committed to more than doubling copper output by 2035.⁴ These are not marginal tweaks, they are balance sheet level bets that copper demand linked to electrification, grid expansion and energy security will outlast the current cycle.

But copper’s second act is more complicated.

Visible inventories across Comex, the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have surpassed one [1] million tonnes for the first time in over two decades.⁵ That is not a trivial milestone: rising exchange stocks signal either demand fatigue or metal being parked ahead of anticipated trade friction. In this case, both dynamics appear to be in play, US tariff related stockpiling has pulled units into warehouses while softer seasonal demand in China has allowed inventories to accumulate.⁵

For mining executives and their bankers, this creates a tension between near term earnings strength and medium-term price risk. Elevated prices have flattered 2025 results, yet inventory builds tend to cap upside and can quickly reverse sentiment if macro conditions weaken.

The strategic response is already visible. Portfolios are becoming more concentrated, with capital flowing toward copper projects at the expense of marginal commodities. The aim is scale and cost leadership in a metal with structural demand support. 

At the same time, operations are becoming more disciplined, with volume reliability critical because of the price-led nature of earnings; missing guidance in a high price environment erodes credibility fast. 

Finally, commercials are becoming more flexible, with producers sharpening their ability to redirect cathode, concentrate and blends across regions to capture premia and manage inventory cycles.

Copper is now shaping miners’ earnings in two distinct ways. It is delivering immediate cash flow resilience – cushioning groups exposed to softer bulk markets – while simultaneously redefining long term capital allocation, M&A strategy and exploration priorities.

The paradox is that the more miners embrace copper as strategic bedrock, the more exposed they become to its cyclical swings. One million tonnes of exchange stocks is not a crisis. But it is a reminder that even the energy transition’s favourite metal obeys the laws of inventory and price.

For now, copper is both shield and spear. The next phase will test whether it remains both.