Export restrictions and carbon pricing are reshaping who can access European aluminium scrap. Domestic remelters are gaining ground that they previously ceded to Asian buyers. But contamination means the discount on secondary metal can only close so far.
LME Aluminium cash prices slid to three-week lows and settled at $3,498.50/t on Thursday 11 June 2026, down sharply from the four-year high of $3,795.50/t reached just ten days earlier on Monday 1 June 2026.
May brought a modest increase in China’s copper concentrate imports, but unwrought copper volumes continued to lag last year’s pace.
LME Aluminium cash prices slid to three-week lows and settled at $3,498.50/t on Thursday 11 June 2026, down sharply from the four-year high of $3,795.50/t reached just ten days earlier on Monday 1 June 2026.
LME Aluminium cash prices slid to three-week lows and settled at $3,498.50/t on Thursday 11 June 2026, down sharply from the four-year high of $3,795.50/t reached just ten days earlier on Monday 1 June 2026. The pace of the decline has been steep, aluminium cash prices have fallen by $297.00/t (around 7.8%) in just eight trading sessions, driven by uncertainty surrounding the potential escalation or de-escalation of US President Trump's war with Iran.
The three-month contract closed at $3,495.50/t on Thursday 11 June 2026, down from $3,685.50/t on Monday 1 June 2026, and the backwardation that had characterised the market through the Gulf crisis has all but disappeared. On Monday 1 June 2026, cash traded at a $110.00/t premium to the three-month contract. By Thursday's close, that premium had collapsed to just $3.00/t, a reduction of more than 97% in ten days. If this holds, it would imply that the pace of LME stock declines may begin to slow even if the underlying physical supply shortfall from the Gulf persists, since the cost of carry for warehousing metal rather than shipping it has largely evaporated.
LME warehouse stocks are continuing to draw down despite the softening backwardation. Opening stocks stood at 322,000 tonnes on Thursday 11 June 2026, down from 324,825 tonnes on Wednesday 10 June 2026 and from 337,700 tonnes on Monday 1 June 2026, marking a decline of roughly 4.65% in ten days.
The scale of these moves becomes clearer against pre-war levels. On Thursday 26 February 2026, the day before the conflict escalated, LME Aluminium cash stood at $3,121/t, with opening stocks at 469,550 tonnes. Thursday's cash close of $3,498.50/t is therefore still approximately 12.1% higher than the pre-war level, despite the sharp pullback from the Monday 1 June 2026 peak of $3,795.50/t. Warehouse stocks, meanwhile, have fallen by more than 31% over the same period, from 469,550 tonnes to 322,000 tonnes, underlining that the physical tightness underpinning the rally has not reversed even as the price has corrected from its peak.
Markets will undoubtedly be awaiting news over the weekend pertaining to a deal between the US and Iran and a possible end to the war. Another question for the days ahead is whether this week's slide represents a genuine repricing of the macro backdrop or a short-term overreaction to the latest headlines. The underlying physical supply picture, with EGA's Al Taweelah smelter still facing a recovery timeline of up to a year and Alba's Bahrain operations still partially suspended, is essentially unchanged from the conditions that drove the rally to $3,795.50/t in the first place. The collapse in the backwardation, however, suggests the market's near-term physical anxiety has eased considerably even if the structural supply picture has not.
Export restrictions and carbon pricing are reshaping who can access European aluminium scrap. Domestic remelters are gaining ground that they previously ceded to Asian buyers. But contamination means the discount on secondary metal can only close so far.
May brought a modest increase in China’s copper concentrate imports, but unwrought copper volumes continued to lag last year’s pace.
Weekly review of LME base metals markets covering aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, analysing price action, spreads, warehouse stocks, cancelled warrants, and the macro and physical drivers behind trading activity during the week ending 5 June 2026.
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