The market has moved in two phases: Phase one: visible stocks rose and prices fell. Phase two: available stocks tightened and prices recovered. Copper did not fall because demand disappeared. It fell because inventories rose. It recovered because available metal still looked scarce.
Zinc sent mixed signals in March: a big warehouse build and price dip looked bearish, but the market absorbed it fast. The real issue is structural – mine supply is rising faster than refining capacity, with smelter constraints and demand uncertainty capping prices for years.
The aluminium market isn’t short. It’s scared. 3m tonnes of Middle East smelting capacity is offline, and buyers are watching supply, not price. Orders pulled forward, inventories rebuilt, supply routes reopened. This isn’t a spike. It’s a shift from price discovery to availability management.
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